As Boris Johnson and EU Commission President, Ursula Von der Leyen, embarked on Brexit talks this afternoon (Monday 14^th June), it is hoped that the country will experience more than one ‘restart’ as our non-essential stores re-open their doors which, rather like the Brexit negotiations, have been impassable for some time.

The parties were joined by European Council President, Charles Michel, and European Parliament President, David-Maria Sassoli, who pointedly noted that a "broad and ambitious agreement" was their goal, being “in our mutual interest”.

Far from a broad and ambitious agreement Brexit talks have so-far stalled over ‘gateway issues’ -- the retention of the ‘level playing field’ (or core social, environmental and consumer standards), remaining in lock step over state aid and fishing rights. Lobbies, such as the CBI, fear we’re not even getting close to clarifying issues such as product standards, qualifications, financial services passporting, until these gateways are ‘passed through’.   There’s been a resigned feeling about the 30^th June deadline for extending the transition period which runs to end December - an option which has anyway been repeatedly ruled out by the government.

The negotiating argy bargy has continued with the UK government recently suggesting it could modify its ask and give up on a “zero-tariff, zero-quota” trade deal so it does not have to adhere to EU standards and state aid, with the EU responding by stating that a trade deal with tariffs on goods would “never happen” in the outstanding six month period.

But following the talks held 15^th June, the PM suggested a deal should be "done in July", concluded by December, and that both sides had agreed to intensify talks over the coming month to find an "early understanding on the principles". He added, "I certainly don't want to see it going on until the Autumn/Winter as I think perhaps in Brussels they would like. I don't see any point in that so let's get it done."

Perhaps this will provide the ‘political push’ the CBI has been asking for. They have made it clear that without this it won’t be possible to get the civil servants together to deliver what is required because for them it’s not all about policy positions but about having the ‘go ahead’ to negotiate over the summer months.

Speaking last week at a CBI daily webinar briefing, Nicole Sykes, the CBI’s Head of EU Negotiations, reaffirmed that business organisation’s position as a ‘big fan of getting a deal’ which they continued to push for recognising that the government had stated they would not extend the transition period. “The deal we are heading for is much lighter touch than we would have wanted,” she said. “It looks as though it will be good on some services elements – data flows for example, but business will face significant barriers. The UK is looking for a number of annexes where there would be some areas of alignment but the EU is not looking at these at present or discussing them. But even this will be better than a no-deal Brexit.”

Explaining that the UK had worked hard to reduce conflicts around the EU deal in terms of the USA trade deal Ms Sykes stated, “The civil service knows we need two huge deals with our single biggest market and our single biggest country market. They have tried to keep these separate without any cross over. Decisions are still awaited around technicalities but we have to see where these go. The civil service have changed the timetable around the US deal and it looks like being a post-election deal now.”

She acknowledged that businesses were starting to prepare for a no-deal Brexit again, recognising that the government here, as elsewhere, had been fully focussed on Covid-19 with civil servants being pulled over to work on this emergency. “From a business perspective it’s what do you do about the regulatory environment,” she asked. “Last time when we were facing a no-deal Brexit there were a number of technical notices on the UK and EU side to create exceptions and easements for services and goods movements. These were removed earlier this year as we now look like we are saying no-deal Brexit from day one. If there is not going to be any extension of transition or an implementation period then easements coming back will be essential. Let’s not kill the food supply chain in the event of a no-deal Brexit.”

Professor Anand Menon, Director, The UK in a Changing Europe, speaking at the same CBI briefing, highlighted the divergence between the business and political timetables with business wanting an early deal so they could prepare and politicians wanting to run down the clock. Although David Frost, the UK’s chief Brexit negotiator was saying he wanted a deal by end September so business could prepare, it would  already be too late by then. He said, “No-deal Brexit is more likely than it’s ever been. We are pinning all our hopes on an Autumn deal, but that’s when we could have a second Covid spike…No-deal used to be a massive big deal. Now it’s virtually no big deal. Businesses need to start preparing for a no-deal Brexit which is now a perfectly plausible outcomes.

“Talk about tariffs will take longer. This will require impact assessments. The thinner the deal the harder it will be to conclude before the end of the year. Politics is the big fear. If we undermine the political trust between us and our 27 closest neighbours this matters to the mitigation of the economics of no-deal Brexit, to crime, terrorism and the many other collaborations which will suffer.”

Professor Menon bemoaned the lack of good interaction between business and government stating, “Government is berating business which it thinks does not see the opportunities for Brexit. But this relationship needs to function well for our country to function well.

Last week we saw the release of the first output numbers for April. Aviation output fell 92.8%, car output by 90.3%, food and beverage services down 88.5%, hotels by 86.9%. With 9 million people on furlough and some industries such as high street retail and aviation facing structural challenges, unemployment is forecast to increase anything from 9% to as much as 20%.  In light of current deprivation levels across the region, the Midlands Economic Forum (MEF), warns in its latest monthly report for May that ‘demographic stability’ would be ‘tested’ should regional unemployment accelerate past 12%. Employment demand, they highlight, has been weakening since the Q3 last year according to PMI data. In the past two months it plummeted in the West Midlands to a low-point of 26 in April. With national unemployment projected to reach 9%, MEF notes that in the previous 2009 peak post the global financial crisis, regional unemployment was almost 3% higher than that nationally.   Add to this recent announcements of job losses by Jaguar Land Rover to cut 1,100 agency staff on 15^th June, brick manufacturers, Ibstock and Forterra, cutting 600 jobs, Churchill China in the Potteries losing 250 jobs. In the East Midlands Rolls-Royce announced 9,000 redundancies, Travis Perkins, headquartered in Northampton 2,500 job losses (15^th June) and Triumph in Hinkley announced 240 lay-offs at the start of the month. And this small sample is sadly just the start.

Now, more than ever pragmatism needs to trump ideology. Especially if we are going to ‘Build Back Better’.  Recent research showed more than half of people surveyed by Ipsos MORI believed the UK should request an extension to the transition period so the government could focus on COVID-19. A second and later sample showed a growing proportion wanting to see the transition period extended with two-thirds (65%) in favour, and just 31% against any extension. Young people aged 18-24 years were far more likely to be in favour an extension at 85%. Given these views and the huge challenges facing us there needs to be some really good reasons why we would forge ahead with a poor deal or even worse a no-deal Brexit this year.

15^th June 2020

Postscript: ONS Unemployment data released 16^th June 0700:

UK Claimant Count level increased by 125.9% since March 2020;
Number of people on payrolls is down 600k ;
Number of vacancies at a record low for May;
February to April 2020 saw a record quarterly fall in the number of self-employed (down 131,000) ;
March to May 2020 saw the largest quarterly decrease to the vacancies total since the current series started in 2001;
There were an estimated 771,000 young people (aged 16 to 24 years) in the UK who were not in education, employment or training (NEET) in January to March 2020; this was an increase of 6,000 compared with January to March 2019 

West Midlands has the second highest unemployment rate at 4.8% after the North East at 5.2%

Associate Professor Beverley Nielsen is Director at the Institute for Design & Economic Acceleration (IDEA) at Birmingham City University. She is Senior Fellow at the Centre for Brexit Studies, BCU. Beverley is also a Councillor on Malvern Hills District Council and Mayoral Candidate for the Liberal Democrats in the West Midlands.

Beverley and Dr Steve McCabe are due to publish their latest book ‘English Regions After Brexit’, in July 2020, to be launched 30^th July and available from Bite-sized books.

Today (Thursday, 16 January) the West Midlands Liberal Democrats formally announce Beverley Nielsen as candidate for the region’s Mayoral election, taking place on Thursday May 7.

Beverley Nielsen is a Councillor on Malvern Hill District Council, holding the Economic Development Portfolio and having gained a great understanding of the region’s strengths and priorities both as candidate during the 2017 West Midlands Mayoral election and having worked in the region over the past 20 years.

Liberal Democrat candidate for West Worcestershire, Beverley Nielsen has welcomed the announcement from the national party to start the largest tree-planting programme in history to help fight the climate crisis:

“With national tree week kicking off on Saturday I am committed to ensuring the level of tree cover is doubled in West Worcestershire. This is exactly the level of ambition we need to show if we are to ensure that the global world temperature increase remains below 2°C ; any higher the IPCC is warning, will have a devastating effect on our climate.”

Last night, we held our Liberal Democrat manifesto launch event in Camden, North London, where Jo Swinson laid out our ambitious government plans for both people and the planet.

In her speech, Jo emphasised that the Liberal Democrats are the only party that can take votes away from the Conservatives, the only party that will stop Brexit and the only party that can build a brighter future for our country.

Liberal Democrat Parliamentary candidate for West Worcestershire Beverley Nielsen has been speaking about the escalating crisis in the NHS:

“Despite the continued and unwavering dedication of our healthcare professionals, it is shocking to learn of the ongoing performance failures of our Worcestershire Acute Hospital. It is saddening to hear patients in West Worcestershire being abandoned, be it waiting for hours for treatment in A&E or for months in pain for routine operations. Worcestershire Acute Hospitals NHS Trust needs to improve and this government are not the people to demand and enforce this change.

Responding to the news that Nigel Farage's Brexit Party will not be standing a candidate in West Worcestershire, Liberal Democrat Parliamentary candidate Beverley Nielsen said:

“Nigel Farage's comments show he is running scared of the Liberal Democrats as the strongest Remain party in areas like West Worcestershire. He knows that we are the only true Remain party at this election that can take seats like this from the Conservatives and stop Brexit.

“Boris Johnson's Conservatives and the Brexit party are now one and the same. Both want to see an extreme Brexit that will damage our local economy, public services and limit opportunities for our children and grandchildren.

“Voters in West Worcestershire have a historic opportunity at this election to elect a Liberal Democrat MP, stop Brexit and build a brighter future for our country."

Lib Dem PPC for West Worcestershire, Beverley Nielsen, says that the government’s top-down development policies are failing our beautiful county.

She is calling for greater freedoms to give our local councillors the powers to produce a plan that meets our real household needs and not one that is stacked in favour of developers, every step of the way.

Her proposals would see local authorities having the ability to identify sites more proactively and set in place the conditions to meet our own growth plans through a vision for a smarter, greener, fairer place. This would remove the need to comply with the government’s ‘Standard Methodology’ – the same formula used in calculating the ‘new homes need’ in Westminster as in Malvern Hills – and required to ensure a five-year housing supply as part of our Local Plan.

Associate Professor Cllr Beverley Nielsen
IDEA Institute, Birmingham City University

In writing this piece today, Sunday 20^thOctober, I had hoped greater clarity would be emerging after the ‘Super Saturday’sitting of the House of Commons.

With such a thing not having occurred in 37 years, the scene was set for the government to drive through the PM’s new withdrawal agreement, Saturday being the last opportunity to avoid having to ask for an extension of Article 50 under the European Union (Withdrawal) (No.2) Act 2019, known as the Benn Act.

However, clarity remains as elusive as ever as we battle to comprehend not only where we are, but where we are going.

Action lines have opened up on four fronts – in government, in Parliament, in court, and across the EU, with business doing its best to simply get on with things regardless.